Predicted final probability
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—Chance final risk exceeds 10⁻⁶
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Ensemble classification estimate
Current reported probability
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Time to closest approach
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Select a point on the timeline
Risk evolution
Click an observation to make it the current world state.
Model interpretation
Generated from the current inputs and counterfactual sensitivity tests.
Select an event to begin.
Strongest local drivers
Interactive world state
Move the controls to run instant in-browser counterfactual predictions.
Days until closest approach.
−6 corresponds to probability 0.000001.
Dataset-provided maximum estimated log-risk.
Relative separation estimate in metres.
Relative velocity in metres per second.
Distance normalized by uncertainty geometry.
Scales radial, along-track and cross-track sigma inputs.
Scales observations used for both objects.
Technical note
The six position-uncertainty inputs are scaled together. Weighted RMS values remain those of the selected historical observation. The model uses 16 numerical features and a compact ensemble of randomized decision trees trained with an event-level holdout split.
Counterfactual comparison
These are sensitivity scenarios, not calculated spacecraft manoeuvres.
Model card
Trained from the attached dataset. The continuous target is the latest observed event risk, clipped at log10 −12 to limit the dataset’s −30 floor. Classification threshold: final probability ≥ 10⁻⁶.
—source observations
—unique events
—holdout MAE, log10 units
—holdout ROC AUC
Safety limitation: public historical data and a statistical model cannot replace validated ephemerides, covariance propagation, conjunction assessment, mission rules, or qualified human operators.